Post-pandemic outlook: How will the global economy recover?

As countries ease restrictions, the global economy reels from COVID-19’s adverse effects on different business sectors, including tourism, transportation, trade, manufacturing and services. The International Monetary Fund estimates a 4.2% contraction this year on global output per head, while 90% of all countries will experience negative growth in real GDP terms. Morgan Stanley had warned that despite an aggressive policy response, it will take until the third quarter of 2021 before GDP in developed markets return to pre-virus levels. Deutsche Bank projects the US and European economies to be $1 trillion below pre-virus expectations by the end of 2021. Citigroup saw a global hit of around $5 trillion, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. estimated the lost output at $5.5 trillion or almost 8% of GDP through the end of next year.

In this RadioFinance session, we will discuss and assess the current global economic outlook and evaluate the readiness of the countries to deal with the fallout from COVID-19.

The discussion will focus on the following:

  • The pandemic’s geopolitical consequences on global economic growth
  • How will the different economies recover? Manufacturing-intensive ones versus service-oriented ones; developed economies versus emerging markets
  • Saving lives and livelihoods – policies required for sustainable economic activity in the time of limiting globalisation
  • How will employment and work look like post-crisis?

Guests include:
Charles Bean

Former Chief Economist, Bank of England, and Professor of Economics, London School Economy and Political Science (LSE)

John Gong

Professor of Economics, University of International Business and Economics (UIBE)


Dr. Taimur Baig

Managing Director and
Chief Economist Group Research,
DBS Bank



Host:
Emmanuel Daniel

Founder, The Asian Banker, Wealth and Society




About the series:

The COVID-19 Series is a collection of radio sessions that will be broadcast live on social media platforms to about 30,000 listeners in the financial services sector to survey the impact of the pandemic across the globe, potential aftershocks businesses may face and possible line of action in the days ahead.

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